Downbeach Forecast Calls For Above Average Hurricane Season

Jersey Shore residents could be in for a wet n wild hurricane season this fall. Forecasters predict 17 named storms. Four could be major, with winds of 111 mph or more.

NOAA forecasters monitoring oceanic and atmospheric patterns say conditions are now more favorable for above-normal hurricane activity since El Nino has now ended.

Two named storms have formed so far this year and the peak months of the hurricane season, August through October, are now underway.

Historically, 95 percent of all Atlantic hurricanes form from August through October.

Seasonal forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center have increased the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 45% (up from 30% from the outlook issued in May).

margate ventnor hurricane
Above Average

On average, the Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.

NOAA’s hurricane season outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. Landfalls are largely determined by short-term weather patterns, which are only predictable within about a week of a storm potentially reaching a coastline.

This week, the FEMA Ready Campaign and its federal partners released videos that show the deadly threat from tropical weather, specifically hurricane storm surge and flooding, to help emphasize the importance of following the instructions of state and local authorities in advance of a storm.

NOAA encourages residents in communities that can be impacted by landfalling hurricanes to ensure their preparedness measures are in place now to become a more Weather-Ready Nation. Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for the latest about tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

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